What Drives Indonesian Youth to Work Abroad? Evidence from Indonesian Provincial Panel Data and Analytic Hierarchy Process
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v21i2.2026.pp530-541Keywords:
Youth Labor Migration, Provincial minimum wage , Indonesian migrant worker , Placement companies, Analytic hierarchy process, Digital migration narrativesAbstract
Youth labor migration in Indonesia has become increasingly prominent amid persistent labor market disparities and the growing influence of digital migration narratives. This study aims to analyze the structural and subjective determinants of youth labor migration in Indonesia by integrating panel data regression and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The quantitative analysis uses panel data from 34 Indonesian provinces during 2020–2024 to examine the effects of youth unemployment, the provincial minimum wage, the number of Indonesian Migrant Worker Placement Companies, and per capita income on the number of young Indonesian migrant workers. The qualitative stage involved 15 Indonesian migrant workers in Malaysia aged 15–29 years, selected through purposive sampling. Their pairwise judgments were analyzed using AHP to identify the priority factors underlying migration decisions. The regression results indicate that the number of Indonesian Migrant Worker Placement Companies has a positive and significant effect on youth labor migration, whereas provincial minimum wage and per capita income have significant negative effects. Meanwhile, youth unemployment does not significantly influence migration decisions. The AHP findings reveal that economic factors remain the highest priority, followed by individual, social, and policy factors, with personal aspirations and competency readiness emerging as the most influential sub-factors. This study contributes to the migration literature by integrating structural macroeconomic determinants with individual perceptions through a mixed-method framework, thereby extending the conventional push–pull migration perspective with institutional and digital-era dimensions. The findings imply that policies should not only improve domestic employment opportunities but also strengthen migration governance, workforce preparedness, and transparent placement systems.
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