Sustainable Capital Markets as Exchange Rate Stabilizers: Quantile Evidence on Rupiah Resilience under External Monetary Shocks
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v21i2.2026.pp330-350Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Stock Market, Government Bond, Interest Rate, Quantile RegressionAbstract
This study examines whether Indonesian capital market instruments are associated with Rupiah movements across the conditional distribution of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). Quarterly data from 2010Q1 to 2024Q4 are analyzed using quantile regression after unit root testing, a preliminary ARDL bounds assessment, and stationarity transformations. The U.S. Federal Funds Rate remains at level because it is stationary. Estimates are reported for lower, median, and upper quantiles using Huber Sandwich and XY pair bootstrap inference with 1,000 replications. The results identify the SRI KEHATI Index as the most consistent variable. Its coefficient is positive and significant across representative quantiles in Models 1 and 3, with the strongest robustness in Model 3. At the lower quantile, stronger sustainability-oriented equity performance is associated with more favorable Rupiah movements and reduced depreciation pressure. The LQ45 and Jakarta Islamic indices show no comparable robust relationships. Government bonds and the domestic policy rate are significant only under limited lower-quantile conditions, while the Federal Funds Rate has no robust direct association with NEER movements. Slope equality tests reveal no significant differences across quantiles. Overall, sustainability-oriented equity performance shows the strongest association with Rupiah resilience, although the empirical findings indicate a statistical association rather than causality.
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