ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE VALUE OF EXPORT OF INDONESIAN COCOA BEANS IN 1996-2015

The purpose of this research is to analyze the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans, using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The dependent variable used in this research is the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans, while the independent variables are international price of cocoa beans, exchange rate rupiah to US$, domestic production of Indonesian cocoa beans and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using time series data from 1996-2015 (20 years). The result shows that the international price variable of cocoa beans has a positive and significant effect on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans. The rupiah exchange rate against US $ has a negative and significant effect on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans. Domestic production of Indonesian cocoa beans has a positive and significant effect on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the world has a positive and significant effect on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans in 1996-2015.


INTRODUCTION
Indonesia is ranked third in the world as the world's largest cocoa producer after Ivory Coast and Ghana in 2015 and received recognition and has officially joined the international cocoa organization or ICCO (International Cocoa Council Organization).Indonesian cocoa beans are a mainstay of Indonesia's export commodities because Indonesian cocoa has advantages, namely the taste of high cocoa beans from Indonesia and Indonesian cocoa beans are not easy to melt, so it is suitable when used for blending or mixed ingredients (Farida Milias Tuty, 2009)    The coefficient of determination is used to see how much the independent variables are able to provide an explanation of the dependent variable where the value of R 2 ranges from 0 to 1 (0 ≤ R 2 ≤ 1).
The greater the value of R 2 , the greater the variation of the dependent variable can be explained by the independent variable.
Conversely, the smaller the value of 2, the smaller the variation in the dependent variable can be explained by variations in the independent variables.The nature of the coefficient of determination is: 1)  2 is a non-negative quantity.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The multiple linear regression results in the equation model that connects the price of international cocoa beans, the exchange rate of the Rupiah to US $, the domestic production of Indonesian cocoa beans and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans.

CONCLUSION
This study aims to determine whether there is an effect of the international price of cocoa beans, the exchange rate of the Rupiah against US $, the domestic production of Indonesian cocoa beans and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an independent variable on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans as the dependent variable in the 1996 analysis period until 2015 several conclusions were obtained, namely: 1.The international price of cocoa beans has a positive and significant effect on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans in 1996 -2015.This result is consistent with the initial hypothesis which states that the variable international price of cocoa beans has a positive influence on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans.This is in accordance with the theory that if international prices rise, the value of exports will also rise.From this theory, it can be concluded that if the international price of cocoa beans increases, it will affect the value of Indonesian cocoa beans exports which also increase.Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises to the value of exports will also increase.
From the theory, it can be concluded that if the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the world increases, it will affect the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans which also increases.
. The area of Indonesian cocoa plantations is 1.4 million hectares with a production of approximately 500 thousand tons per year, placing Indonesia as the world's third largest producer country after Evory Coast (Ivory Coast) and Ghana.Ivory Coast, with an area of 1.6 hectares and production of 1.3 million tons per year and Ghana at 900 thousand tons per year.The volume of cocoa beans fluctuated in recent years.
cocoa products are internationally traded commodities.Indonesia is an important exporting country in the trade of cocoa beans.On average, the broad growth of cocoa plantations in Indonesia in 2000-2009 was 8 percent.Cocoa bean exports have good competitiveness but have tended to decline since 2011 because in 2010 the government established Export Tax (BK) to farmers and exporters by 20.5% with a legal basis: PMK No. 67 of 2010 Jo PMK No. 75 of 2012.The regulation was made to reduce the export of cocoa beans so that the supply of domestic cocoa beans can be met.Empowerment of cocoa processing in Indonesia in the last few years has increased so that the regulations stipulating BK rules are implemented until now.As a result, the number of Indonesian cocoa bean exports has declined quite dramatically since 2010.RESEARCH METHODS This research concerns the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans along with the factors that influence them.The data used is serial data time for 20 years starting from 1996-2015.A clearer definition of these variables is presented in table 2.
2. The exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US $ has a negative and significant effect on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans in 1996-2015.This result is in accordance with the initial hypothesis A for the value of Indonesian cocoa bean exports.This is in accordance with the theory if the exchange rate rises, the export value falls.From the theory, it can be concluded that if the exchange rate of Rupiah against US $ appreciates it will affect the value of Indonesian cocoa bean exports to decline in response has a positive and significant influence on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans in Ekuilibrium : Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 14 No. 1 result is consistent with the initial hypothesis which states that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) variable of the world has a positive influence on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans.This is in accordance with the theory if the

Table 1 .
The volume of Indonesian Cocoa Beans Export by Country of Destination Year

Table 2 .
Operational definitions of variables

1. Test of Classical Assumptions
model can be seen from the value of Tolerance and its opponent Variance Inflation Factor (VIF).The basis of the analysis is: 1) If the tolerance value is> 0.10 or the same as the VIF value <10, it can be d) Heteroscedasticity Test Detection of heteroscedasticity aims to test whether in the regression model there is an inequality of variance from the residual one observation to another observation.A good regression model is that homoskedasticity or heteroscedasticity does not occur.There are test methods, such as Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, Harvey, Glejser, ARCH, White and others.In this study using the Glejser Test.

Table 4 .
Multicollinearity Test Results for VIF Testing